the effect of foreign direct investment, real exchange rate and economic liberalization on non – oil exporting in i.r.iran(using toda yamamoto causality test)

Authors

خسرو پیرایی

دانشیار دانشکدة اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد شیراز مونا تاسان

. دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی، دانشکدة اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد شیراز محمد دانش نیا

کارشناس بازرگانی داخلی سازمان صنعت، معدن، و تجارت استان فارس، ادارة جهرم

abstract

the economy's dependence on oil revenues and derivatives of these products make the country's economy heavily influenced by the volatility and instability of the pricing of these products. therefore, it seems necessary to develop non-oil exports. this paper examines the causality relation and the effect of foreign direct investment, economic openness and real exchange rate on non-oil exporting in i.r.iran. using annual data covering the period 1974-2008, vector auto regressive method and toda- yamamoto causality test it is shown that significant and positive effect exist between openness of economy, foreign direct investment, and real exchange rate on non- oil export variable. more over the existence of a single causality relation from real exchange rate and economic openness to non–oil exporting has been proved.  jel: f19, f21, f31, f41

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Journal title:
تحقیقات اقتصادی

جلد ۵۰، شماره ۱، صفحات ۷۵-۹۸

Keywords
[ ' t h e e c o n o m y & a p o s ; s d e p e n d e n c e o n o i l r e v e n u e s a n d d e r i v a t i v e s o f t h e s e p r o d u c t s m a k e t h e c o u n t r y & a p o s ; s e c o n o m y h e a v i l y i n f l u e n c e d b y t h e v o l a t i l i t y a n d i n s t a b i l i t y o f t h e p r i c i n g o f t h e s e p r o d u c t s . t h e r e f o r e ' , ' i t s e e m s n e c e s s a r y t o d e v e l o p n o n ' , ' o i l e x p o r t s . t h i s p a p e r e x a m i n e s t h e c a u s a l i t y r e l a t i o n a n d t h e e f f e c t o f f o r e i g n d i r e c t i n v e s t m e n t ' , ' e c o n o m i c o p e n n e s s a n d r e a l e x c h a n g e r a t e o n n o n ' , ' o i l e x p o r t i n g i n i . r . i r a n . u s i n g a n n u a l d a t a c o v e r i n g t h e p e r i o d 1 9 7 4 ' , 2 0 0 8 , ' v e c t o r a u t o r e g r e s s i v e m e t h o d a n d t o d a ' , ' y a m a m o t o c a u s a l i t y t e s t i t i s s h o w n t h a t s i g n i f i c a n t a n d p o s i t i v e e f f e c t e x i s t b e t w e e n o p e n n e s s o f e c o n o m y ' , ' f o r e i g n d i r e c t i n v e s t m e n t ' , ' a n d r e a l e x c h a n g e r a t e o n n o n ' , ' o i l e x p o r t v a r i a b l e . m o r e o v e r t h e e x i s t e n c e o f a s i n g l e c a u s a l i t y r e l a t i o n f r o m r e a l e x c h a n g e r a t e a n d e c o n o m i c o p e n n e s s t o n o n o i l e x p o r t i n g h a s b e e n p r o v e d . r n x a 0 j e l : f 1 9 ' , ' f 2 1 ' , ' f 3 1 ' , ' f 4 1 ' ]

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